7/28/2023 0 Comments Forecasting statplus![]() The role of the forecaster in the real world is quite different from that of the mythical seer. The one we inhabit is quite different-little is certain, nothing is preordained, and what we do in the present affects how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways. That world is the stuff of myth and superstition. We don’t, of course: Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes. Their requests reveal the common but fundamentally erroneous perception that forecasters make predictions. People at cocktail parties are always asking me for stock tips, and then they want to know how my predictions have turned out. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don’t fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast. In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blindsided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. ![]() He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. All rights reserved.The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. This variation did not appear to significantly influence LHIN-specific cataract surgery wait times.Ĭopyright © 2016 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. Although the number of cataract surgeries performed was positively correlated with the population aged 65 years and older (p < 0.001), there was no statistically significant association between wait times and number of cataract cases per 1000 population (p = 0.41).Īlthough Ontario appears to have a sufficient number of ophthalmologists overall, there is significant variation in the distribution of the ophthalmology workforce at the LHIN level. Median cataract surgery wait times ranged from 30 to 72 days. LHIN-specific ratios ranged from 8.87 (Toronto Central) to 1.67 (Central West), with 3 out of 14 LHINs having met the previously recommended ratio of 3.37. There are currently 3.28 ophthalmologists per 100 000 total population in Ontario. ![]() Statistical analysis was completed using Microsoft Excel using StatPlus software. Cataract surgery wait times were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Health. The population counts for the population aged 65 years and older were generated using the Canadian Socioeconomic Information Management System (CANSIM) table 109-5425. The total population count for Ontario was obtained from the Statistics Canada census. Ophthalmologists listed in the College of Physicians and Surgeons (CPSO) database and the Canadian population.Ī list of ophthalmologists and their practice locations were obtained from the CPSO website. To determine the current distribution of ophthalmologists across Ontario's Local Health Integration Networks (LHINs) and the influence on LHIN-specific cataract surgery wait times.
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